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As we've noted, Google's Android mobile operating system is showing increasing signs of having a forked future, as the Android 3.0 (Honeycomb) version spreads out to more tablet devices, while other versions of Android are being used primarily for smartphones. At a recent press event, Google officials were fairly inscrutable about Android's forked future, but it's hard to miss where the various versions of the OS are really headed.
As The Register notes, at a press event this week, Google's director of products for mobile was asked if Honeycomb would run on phones as well as tablets, and he said:
"As we continue to think about the evolution of Android, we will take some of the innovations from Honeycomb and think about how they apply to phones...Android today is available for large-screen tablet-sized devices."
Right, Honeycomb is spreading out to large-screen tablet-sized devices, and it's other Android versions that are arriving on phones. The OS is showing clear signs of forking. However, Barra went on to address the really critical part of the issue, adding for The Register, "We're giving developers tools for making applications optimized for tablets as well as tools for designing an app that works for both."
It's on this front, that the real ramifications of any forking will play out. If Android is going to compete with the iPhone, the iPad and other hot mobile devices over the long run, a cohesive, focused application ecosystem will be essential. Just look at all the applications for the iPhone, and the many good ones for the iPad. Developers need to be able to write their applications one time--not for multiple platforms.
All one has to do to bear the truth of this out is look at the history of other devices. Microsoft established its hegemony on the computing desktop by fostering a huge ecosystem of applications. The early success of the iPhone had a lot to do with the fact that users were surprised at the richness of the application ecosystem, as they continue to be.
Android works in unique ways with voice and has a number of unique technological underpinnings. It's also an open platform. Let's hope Google is staying focused on developers, and their need to write their applications once, as Android's forked future becomes ever more likely.
